Bilal Hafeez
This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History.
Bilal Hafeez
Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst.
John Tierney
We are a week into December, and the holidays are tantalizingly close. Many people use this time to reflect on the year just gone. But for this Grey Swan, I want to fast-forward to December 2024. Imagine what we could be looking back on then… China’s Recovery Never Happened Entering 2Q 2024, it was becoming […]
Matthew Tibble
The BoE’s recent suggestion that ONS wage growth data was inaccurate implies a dovish revision of the bank’s inflation forecasts. The USD/JPY rally may be smaller than previous ones.
Matthew Tibble
The contrarian trade is to be bullish China, but we find good reason to remain on the sidelines. Oil could hit $100/bbl, but we would fade any move higher.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The ongoing deflation in the price of US imports from China should moderate as it is based on sharp and unsustainable CNY weakening rather than on productivity gains. China’s influence on global export prices is set to weaken as the global trade system fragments and China’s role diminishes.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures are plateauing, averaging 132k a day since mid-July (Chart 1). Historically, global departures have declined from here.
Bilal Hafeez
Stephen is a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China and most recently Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures continue to rise, averaging 132k a day (Chart 1). That is a 5k increase from last month and 5.4% above 2019 levels.
Henry Occleston, Ayra Khan
Cinema revenues are lagging the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy. However, the picture is much more positive for domestically produced Chinese films than others. There has been a concerted retrenchment from international films since 2019, which seems to be holding up.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures keep rising at an average of 127.7k a day, 4.3% above 2019 levels (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Global departures have recovered their strong upwards trend as half-term holidays commenced (Chart 1). Departures sit 5% above 2019 levels.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Last week’s small retreat in departures proved short lived as global departures soar to 122,000 per day (Chart 1). Departures sit 6% above 2019 levels.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Last month, we investigated whether the Chinese were flying abroad. Our data showed they were, with departures to Thailand showing no slack. The latest data from Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sport has confirmed as much; arrivals in Thailand from China increased to 19% in March, versus 2019 averages, an increase from 11% in February (Chart A).
Bilal Hafeez
Gene Ma is the Head of China Research at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Gene served as China Strategist at top macro hedge fund Tudor Investment.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Average global departures have remained above 120,000 per day, up 1.1% WoW and 5.9% above 2019 levels (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Our latest China Growth Tracker shows that a vast majority of the reopening is simply Chinese flights returning. However, we have collected the latest ADS-B and Mode S data2 to track whether these flights are leaving the country.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Average global departures sit close to 114,000 per day, up 1,000 per day from the last report. They remain the highest since January 2020 and sit above 2019 levels (Chart 1).
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Average global departures sit above 122,000 per day, up 1,000 per day from the last report.
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