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MACRO · EQUITIES · FX · COMMODITIES · GEOPOLITICS
Monetary Policy & Inflation | US
Dalvir Mandara, Bilal Hafeez
US treasury yields increased last week as an unexpectedly strong US jobs report strengthened the case for more tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336k in September against expectations of 170k.
John Tierney
The consumer staples sector has underperformed the broader market by more than three points in recent months.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Rates momentum models (+0.4% WoW) outperformed FX and equity momentum models (-0.1% WoW) over the past week. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month time frame (+3.4%). FX (+0.6%) followed while equity (-3.0%) struggled.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The 2021-22 oil price shock is an outlier: it led to a spike in core inflation but not a recession. This reflects a recovery in workers’ bargaining power together with belated and limited policy tightening.
Macro Hive's newsletters gave me the intel I needed to reposition my investment portfolio ahead of these selloffs! I couldn't be more grateful to Bilal and the team.
Lauryn Enide
Senior Software Engineer at Microsoft
When tackling macro themes, I am faced with many challenges, such as the involvement of numerous variables and tons of related information, and Macro Hive helps me deal with this complexity. Human intelligence proves to still be ahead of AI and technology!
Lorenzo Lorenzi
Foundation Endowment Manager
Macro Hive is more than just an independent research provider. It's a network and community connecting some of the best investors and thinkers together. A real industry disruptor!
Etienne de Marsac
Head of Absolute Return at Sunny Asset Management
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.
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