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We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.
Looking at data up to 6 February 2023:
- Global departures are sat back above 105,000 a day for the first time since October 2022 following the strongest January change in five years (Table 1). The boost comes amid a rapid China re-opening.
- However, January could have been better had departure seasonality been stronger around the Chinese New Year. It proved weaker than in 2021 and 2022. Going forward, tourism likely rebounds further in Asia as three more border crossings between Hong Kong and mainland China reopened with mandatory tests axed. There is plenty of room for rebound across the East, economically too (Chart 2).
- Turning West, airlines cancelled over 1,800 US departures (5.1% WoW) as an ice storm hit multiple states with Dallas (-21.9% WoW) airport worst affected. European departures (+4.0% WoW) pushed higher.
Information on long-term movements in flight data is available below.
US
UK
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
Canada
China
Japan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore
Thailand
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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