Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Markets to Watch covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Summary US: Friday’s core PCE should support the Fed’s belief in continued disinflation, while NFP (5 April) should show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Europe: preliminary inflation figures out over the next fortnight could […]
Richard Jones
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were up 0.5% over the past week, with outsized positive equity returns leading the way. Equities were up 2.1% WoW, with FX returns up 0.4%, while bonds were the laggards, […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary We think the Fed will stay on hold and keep three 2024 cuts in their forecast when they meet on Wednesday. The Bank of England will also likely keep rates steady, with CPI dictating the tone. Yet Tuesday’s BoJ meeting could bring the first hike in a generation following the strongest shunto wage negotiation […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary The ongoing residential investment recovery is too small to discernibly impact housing supply and cap housing inflation. Yet it is adding to aggregate demand and could create resource pressures. The risks are finely balanced. On one hand, the US housing shortage supports a strong residential recovery. On the other, Fed support has been much […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary A data-rich week in the US sees the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE) and Q4 GDP come out. Expect both to be too hot for the Fed’s liking. EZ inflation data will likely undershoot ECB expectations, while BoE and ECB speakers could indicate policy outlooks. In the $-bloc, expect a hawkish pause from […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary US growth is beating euro-area growth. However, the divergence may have peaked, with recent US data weaker than consensus expected. Chinese companies are struggling to make money, but a new securities regulator is providing hope for investors. The odds of Joe Biden quitting the presidential race have increased markedly in the last few weeks. […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, minutes from the last Fed meeting should indicate the requirements for a cut. Europe sees wage data and final inflation figures for January – undershoots may prompt more dovishness from the ECB. In the $-bloc, Australian PMIs will confirm whether the recent uptick in services can continue, while Canada gets inflation […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary US core inflation will likely remain at 0.3% MoM. For retail sales, Dominique anticipates a small upside surprise to show the consumer remains resilient. Uncertainty surrounds UK inflation data out Tuesday thanks to reweighting factors. Henry expects core to undershoot BoE estimates. Australian NAB data could show a continued decline in price expectations, while […]
Bilal Hafeez
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments.
Bilal Hafeez
Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models.
Matthew Tibble
Summary Saudi Arabia’s oil production market share is at multi-decade lows, putting their ‘lollipop’ cuts at risk of an unwind. The VIX is at a post-Covid low and supporting credit. EZ inflation is returning to the ECB’s forecasted path following the November miss. US yields are strongly correlated with the dollar, and we think yields […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models inched -0.1% lower over the past week, with a poor outing for FX outweighing positive performances for equities and rates. Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, we see an upside surprise in retail sales and think import prices could show the impact of higher shipping costs. We still expect a 50bp cut at the March FOMC. UK inflation could see a near-term MoM uptick in core goods, which may provide a good entry to be long the […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary Rather than rate spreads, risk markets have driven recent EUR/USD performance. Given we expect risk to struggle ahead, we are bearish the euro. Should the Fed’s SEP scenario for core PCE materialize in 2024, we could enter a ‘lowflation’ regime – and the Fed will cut aggressively to prevent that. Hedge funds have added […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary We introduce a new format for 2024, with a more forward-looking focus on the week’s key events. In the US, we expect CPI to show continued disinflation and the small business survey to show resilient growth trends. Dominique now thinks a 50bp cut at the March FOMC is more likely than 25bp. In Europe, […]
Bilal Hafeez
John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager.
Bilal Hafeez
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank.
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
We standardise WoW price changes across different markets to allow for cross-market comparisons. Last Week’s Highlights US jobs data surprised higher. Friday’s NFP data surprised modestly on the upside, with 199,000 jobs added in November versus consensus expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate also surprised, falling back to 3.7% from a two-year high of 3.9% […]
Bilal Hafeez
Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager.
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