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We track scheduled flights (what’s planned) and tracked flights (what took off) from a sample of the largest airports across the world.
Looking at data up to 13 February 2023:
- Global departures are back above 110,000 a day for the first time since January 2020 following a 5.5% jump in departures over the past week (Chart 1). They are up 6.1% so far this month (Table 1).
- The return above pre-Covid levels could have happened sooner had departure seasonality been stronger around the Chinese New Year (Table 2). Going forward, tourism likely rebounds further in Asia as airlines add more flights linking to China while South Korea is the latest country to lift visa curbs on Chinese travellers.
- Turning West, flights resumed in Dallas (+38.1% WoW), helping US departures (+7.7% WoW) climb higher, while school holidays have begun in the UK (Gatwick: +19.1% WoW). Departures rose more steadily in Europe (+3.0% WoW).
Information on long-term movements in flight data is available below.
China
Japan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore
Thailand
US
UK
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
Canada
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Ben Ford is a Researcher at Macro Hive. Ben studied BSc Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University and MSc Finance at Cass Business School, his dissertations were on the tails of GARCH volatility models, and foreign exchange investment strategies during crises, respectively.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)
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