Ep. 117: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on How the Fed is Setting Policy and Why an 8% US Interest Rate is Likely

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:  

1. How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print 
2. Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy 
3. Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely 
4. Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth 
5. Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy 
6. What investors should look out for 
7. Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal 
8. Whether the US will go into recession in 2023 

You can follow Dominque’s work here .

Read the full transcript here.

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(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)