Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary The Fed has r-star around 0.5% in real terms, but markets are pricing it around 2%. We think this could be a return to the pre-GFC ‘normal’. US disinflation could be entering its ‘last mile’ phase, implying slower price increases ahead. Asian trade data corroborates the recent pick-up in global manufacturing, but a lack […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Friday brings seasonal factor revisions to the CPI. These could impact the path of the FFR. Currently Powell seems set on no rate cut in March. Europe and the UK hear from central bank policymakers and see several key surveys updated, including the services PMIs. Elsewhere, a slew of central bank […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, the Fed meets on Wednesday. We expect them to hold rates steady while preparing markets for a cut in March. In the UK, the BoE will likely hold rates unchanged on Thursday, taking a more dovish profile in the near term. January CPI is the main release of the week for […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, we expect core PCE at 15bp on Friday. That would drop the figure below the Fed’s 2% target and increase ‘lowflation’ risks. Dominique still expects a 50bp Fed cut in March. The ECB should leave rates unchanged on Thursday. We see the first cut in June. In the $-bloc, the NAB […]
Bilal Hafeez
This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models (-0.8% WoW) registered negative returns across FX (-0.4% WoW), rates (-1.4% WoW) and equities (-1.0% WoW).
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Rates momentum models (+0.4% WoW) outperformed FX and equity momentum models (-0.1% WoW) over the past week. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month time frame (+3.4%). FX (+0.6%) followed while equity (-3.0%) struggled.
Vasileios Gkionakis
The last few weeks have seen several material developments in global markets. Nominal and real yields at multi-year highs alongside soaring oil prices have recently added to existing trends (dwindling excess savings and contracting global trade), increasing the risk of a global recession.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models signal lower UK yields. This aligns with Henry’s bias in the front-end of the curve. They also agree with our bearish US rates bias.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum model signals sit in contrast to our view to fade CHF strength. They are also yet to get fully on board with our bullish USD basket trade (vs EUR, CHF and GBP).
Vasileios Gkionakis
As of 8 September, the dollar had risen by 4.8% since mid-July, its largest gain over a 41-day period since mid-October 2022.
Vasileios Gkionakis
Idiosyncratic and relative-value (RV) trades are currently appealing. Look for monetary policy divergences (Bank of England repricing lower, rates re-pricing in CEE), sensitivity to ongoing muted Chinese growth, and energy prices.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models are moving towards our view that GBP/CAD will trade lower over the next six months. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models back our view to be long 10Y JGBs vs 10Y USTs (target: -400bps) and long EUR/CHF. They also back our bias to expect European equities to underperform US equities. They disagree with our view for GBP/CAD to trade lower over the next six months.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Market Implications Momentum models are supportive of our hawkish views for both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
Momentum models support Mustafa and Henry’s view that there is value in being long 10Y Bunds vs USTs. They also support Ben’s view that there is little reason to turn short EUR/SEK yet.
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