Matthew Tibble is Commissioning Editor at Macro Hive. He has worked as an editorial consultant and freelance editor for companies such as RiskThinking.AI, JDI Research, and FutureScape248. He holds a PhD in English Literature and formerly held a competitive research fellowship at the University of London.
Economics & Growth
Matthew Tibble
Summary US growth is beating euro-area growth. However, the divergence may have peaked, with recent US data weaker than consensus expected. Chinese companies are struggling to make money, but a new securities regulator is providing hope for investors. The odds of Joe Biden quitting the presidential race have increased markedly in the last few weeks. […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary The Fed has r-star around 0.5% in real terms, but markets are pricing it around 2%. We think this could be a return to the pre-GFC ‘normal’. US disinflation could be entering its ‘last mile’ phase, implying slower price increases ahead. Asian trade data corroborates the recent pick-up in global manufacturing, but a lack […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary Saudi Arabia’s oil production market share is at multi-decade lows, putting their ‘lollipop’ cuts at risk of an unwind. The VIX is at a post-Covid low and supporting credit. EZ inflation is returning to the ECB’s forecasted path following the November miss. US yields are strongly correlated with the dollar, and we think yields […]
Matthew Tibble
Summary Two factors support our bullish USD/JPY call: weak Q1 seasonals for JPY, and Japan’s cyclical downturn. China faces a supply-demand imbalance preventing inflation from returning to positive territory. UK inflation remains below BoE forecasts despite the recent beat. Equities are trading at historically high P/E valuations, which could depress returns in 2024. Market Implications […]
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