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Equities | US
John Tierney
Summary The good news is the Federal Reserve (Fed) has all but promised to deliver three rate cuts in 2024 even if inflation remains slow to drop. The bad news is this was already priced into the market. With the 2Y Treasury yield still trading above 4.5%, there is little visibility now on whether or […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Note: Due to the upcoming holidays, this week’s Markets to Watch covers an extended period, from 25 March to 5 April. Summary US: Friday’s core PCE should support the Fed’s belief in continued disinflation, while NFP (5 April) should show cooling wage growth but strong employment. Europe: preliminary inflation figures out over the next fortnight could […]
Richard Jones
Summary This week saw a torrent of central bank rate decisions, highlighted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ending its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) kept policy steady with comparably less fanfare, […]
Bilal Hafeez on Bloomberg TV
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Macro Hive Conversations with Bilal Hafeez
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
Our views on the major asset classes remain the same. We’re slightly more positive on the FTSE 100 given this environment of rising rates at the long end.
We consolidate our favourite biases into one, easy-to-read, weekly report! Please find the original pieces linked throughout and a summary table at the end of the document. Reach out to us on Slack or email the author with any questions about the content.
Equities | US
John Tierney
Summary The good news is the Federal Reserve (Fed) has all but promised to deliver three rate cuts in 2024 even if inflation remains slow to drop. The bad news is this was already priced into the market. With the 2Y Treasury yield still trading above 4.5%, there is little visibility now on whether or […]
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Summary As I expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) stuck to its narrative of continued but slower disinflation and kept three cuts in 2024. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also made it clear the Fed would not attempt to cap growth to accelerate disinflation. Powell also indicated a quantitative tightening (QT) taper was likely to start soon. […]
Richard Jones
Summary This week saw a torrent of central bank rate decisions, highlighted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ending its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) kept policy steady with comparably less fanfare, […]
John Tierney
Summary We review the key macro themes emerging from Q1 earnings season. No companies are talking about recession risks now. But their outlooks are also mostly consistent with sluggish 1.5-2.0% GDP growth. Consumers are spending on staples and discretionary services but are still not buying goods. AI hardware may be red hot, but the broader […]
David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years experience managing risk across global markets.
Dave DeWalt is Founder, CEO, and Managing Director of NightDragon, an investment and advisory firm focused on growth and late-stage cybersecurity, safety, security, and privacy companies.
Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister's Business Council.
Before starting Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge.
Andrew spent over 25 years in finance on both the buy and sell side. He co-founded Eschaton Opportunities, a $100 million hedge fund focused on global thematic value investing. Earlier in his career, Andrew led JP Morgan's institutional sales business across foreign exchange and emerging markets in Europe, ran Lehman's global derivative sales business, and managed Deutsche Bank's European currency option trading and derivative research business.
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