Henry Occleston
Summary The OBR downgraded real growth across the forecast horizon but upgraded nominal growth forecasts on the back of higher inflation ahead. Ahead of what could well be an election year in 2024, the UK Chancellor’s Autumn Statement provided a 2ppt cut to national insurance contributions. We expect next March’s budget to provide further backing […]
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, co-authored by researchers from Stanford and Columbia, analyses the US banking system’s exposure to rising interest rates.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new NBER working paper investigates the correlation between US macroeconomic data releases and foreign stock markets.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
A new European Central Bank (ECB) working paper estimates the impact of rising real rates on euro area house prices.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The message from 2022’s Jackson Hole Symposium was clear: taming inflation will be harder than markets expect.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The Biden administration has unveiled debt forgiveness plans representing about 2.5% of GDP over 10 years. The forgiveness could raise consumption by 0.5-0.75pp of GDP in 2023 and worsen already exceptional resource pressures.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Researchers from Harvard Business School and NYU Stern examine how US stimulus checks impacted stock prices during the pandemic.
Sam van de Schootbrugge
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak surprised many with a larger-than-anticipated government spending stimulus in the Autumn Budget. This could...
John Tierney
Another year, another Congress, another debt ceiling crisis. Usually, these things get resolved after tense negotiations and...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Although a lifeline for many, the fiscal splurge during the pandemic made 2020 the largest single-year rise in global debt since...
John Tierney
Congress faces two pressing deadlines in coming weeks. First is passing a continuing budget resolution to keep the government open...
Julius Probst, PhD
Japan has been stuck in a zero-interest rate environment since the 1990s. While most consider the country an anomaly, economists like Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke warned...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
During recessions, labour turnover increases as struggling firms attempt to reduce costs. In theory, these workers get reallocated to more productive firms that survive because they have more adaptable business models...
Sam van de Schootbrugge
Many central banks entered the Covid-19 pandemic with their lowest ever policy rate going into a recession. And so, for arguably one of...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
In FY2022, assuming no change to current budget laws, the budget deficit would fall to 4.7% from 13.4% in FY2021. While current budget...
Jon Turek
In January, an NBER paper addressed an economics topic that policymakers are seemingly relitigating. Can monetary policy/demand-side...
John Tierney
Talk about horrible headlines. President Joe Biden wants to boost the capital gains tax to 39.6% for people making more than $1 million...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
The IMF expects strong fiscal consolidation in 2022. This seems unrealistic because economic normalization...
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut
Commentators are drawing several parallels between the opening policy gambits of President Ronald Reagan and President Joe Biden...
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