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The EU, UK, Sweden and Canada have seen a fall in stringency values since our last report (Chart 1). The index, a measure of government restrictions, has fallen most significantly in Europe. The value is now below the EU average for the pandemic and continues to follow a downward trend (Chart 3).
Australia and New Zealand have higher index values, reflecting an upturn in cases and restrictive measures. For the former, this increase has been part of a month-long effort to contain the virus (Chart 3).
Across the developing world, Hong Kong, South Africa, Brazil and Chile have experienced stringency value increases (Chart 2). Hong Kong is the largest mover on the list, with the government announcing restrictions on travel and activities after a surge in cases. We expect this to rise further following record one-day increases in COVID-19 cases.
The Philippines is the only developing country on our list to have seen a decline in its stringency index. Following a prolonged and strict lockdown, the country is showing early signs of passing its peak. For more information see Macro Hive’s COVID-19 Tracker.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)