- The UK and other EU countries have imposed quarantine restrictions on travellers coming back from Spain. The country registered 12,000 new cases last week. The 3-day moving average is also up 61% on this time last week. This weekly rise, however, is lower than France (161%), Belgium (110%) and Greece (71%).
- Australia continues to see cases rise. The country recorded its biggest daily spike, with 534 new cases registered yesterday. Over the last 7 days, the country recorded over 2,800 new cases, just under 20% of its total number.
- Israel banned indoor gatherings of ten or more people and shut some businesses. Despite restrictions on gatherings, large protests continue as cases rise. Last week, the country recorded the second highest number of population-adjusted cases on a 3-day moving average (24). From our scatter graphs below, Israel is currently in the Peak Wave.
- Last week, France, Belgium and Norway experienced the fastest one week moving average growth. Belgium registered over 2,000 new cases over seven days and 572 on Friday. New cases are not localised, instead they seem to be distributed evenly across the country.
- Restrictions have been re-imposed in Iran, a country that saw 12,000 new COVID cases over the last week. Iran also registered its highest daily number of deaths, reaching 229 last Tuesday.
- The US and Brazil continued to see a significant rise in the number of daily cases. Brazil recorded a 3d moving average of 26 cases per 100,000 population between 23 and 25 of July, the highest in our sample. The US experienced a small weekly rise (1%) in the countries’ 3d moving average.
- Argentina began easing restrictions it imposed in March. Towards the end of last week, however, the country experienced the largest percentage increase in daily cases, after Hong Kong. Argentina’s 3d moving average increased 21% since this time last week. The country has had some of the strictest measures in South America.
- Finally, Hong Kong is following an upward trend in cases. The country has now banned gatherings of more than two people, stopped all restaurant dining and made masks mandatory outdoors.
Bilal Hafeez is the CEO and Editor of Macro Hive. He spent over twenty years doing research at big banks – JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Nomura, where he had various “Global Head” roles and did FX, rates and cross-markets research.
Sam van de Schootbrugge is a macro research economist taking a one year industrial break from his Ph.D. in Economics. He has 2 years of experience working in government and has an MPhil degree in Economic Research from the University of Cambridge. His research expertise are in international finance, macroeconomics and fiscal policy.
(The commentary contained in the above article does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.)