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Weekly Futures Momentum Modelsee more…

  1. Momentum Models Scale Back USD/JPY Bullishness

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]

  2. Momentum Models Turn Bearish JGBs Following BoJ Talk

    Ben Ford

    Summary Momentum models declined -0.3% over the past week. Poor rates (-1.0% WoW) and FX (-0.2% WoW) outweighed a positive equity (+0.7% WoW) outing. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+6.9%). Market Implications Momentum models are bearish EUR/USD and bullish GBP/USD – we have closed our long USD trades. They […]

  3. Momentum Models Turn Bullish on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

    Ben Ford

    Summary Momentum models gained +0.3% over the past week. Equities fared best (+1.6% WoW), while rates (+0.0%) and FX (-0.1% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+7.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are bullish EUR/USD – we are short – and bullish EUR/CHF – we are long. They are […]

  1. Momentum Model UST Bearishness Increases

    Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. Equities fared best (+0.3% WoW), then rates (+0.1%). FX (-0.2% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+5.5%). […]

  2. Momentum Models Turn Heavily Bullish USD/JPY

    Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models added to last week’s gains, up +0.4% WoW. Equities fared best (+1.2% WoW), then rates (+0.3% WoW) and FX (+0.1% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model […]

  3. Momentum Models Add to EUR/USD Bearishness

    Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models reversed last week’s losses, up +0.2% WoW. Equities fared best (+0.4% WoW), then rates (+0.2% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+4.8%). […]

Momentum Models Turn Heavily Bullish GBP/USD – We Disagree

Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models reversed last week’s gains as they declined -0.2% over the past week. Rates fared worst (-0.4% WoW), while equities followed (-0.2% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing […]

Momentum Models Pare USD/JPY Bullishness

Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models inched +0.2% higher over the past week as equities outshone mixed outings in rates and FX. Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+4.0%). […]

  1. Momentum Models Return to Bearish US Rates and Bullish USD

    Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models inched -0.1% lower over the past week, with a poor outing for FX outweighing positive performances for equities and rates. Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over […]

  2. Momentum Models Flip Bearish on US 10Y, Bunds, and Gilts

    Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

    Summary Momentum models inched +0.1% higher over the past week, with equities offsetting a poor outing in FX and rates. Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+3.7%). Rates (-1.1%) and FX models (-0.1%) have struggled. Market Implications Momentum models are signalling US 5s10s steepening, a trade Mustafa has […]

  3. Momentum Models Remain Bullish Bonds, Now Signal FTSE Underperformance

    Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

    Summary Momentum models declined 0.5% over the past week as the recent rate and equity bid reversed. FX models also underperformed. Equity momentum models are the only positive performing model over a three-month timeframe (+1.4%). Rates (-1.2%) and FX models (-0.8%) have struggled. Market Implications Momentum models remain bullish on bonds. Our PCA model sees […]

CTAs Turn Bullish US Rates Following Dovish December Fed

Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models edged higher over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.8% WoW) were hampered by FX. Equity momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+1.2%). […]

US Rates Sit Close to Bullish CTA Signals

Ben Ford

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.2% WoW) were offset by rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+1.4%). […]

  1. CTAs Could Ignite Further UST Bullishness

    Ben Ford

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.2% WoW) were offset by rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+1.4%). […]

  2. Equity Momentum Models Continue Outperformance

    Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez

    When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models were flat over the past week as gains in equity momentum models (+0.6% WoW) were offset by FX and rates. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]

  3. Equity Momentum Models Outperform as USD Turns Lower

    Ben Ford

    Summary Momentum models (-0.3% WoW) added to last week’s losses, although equity momentum models provided a bright spot (+0.3%). Meanwhile, FX (-0.7%) led declines. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+0.8%). FX (-0.5%) and equity (-0.9%) struggled. Market Implications Momentum models remain bullish on Gilts, in line with Henry’s view […]

Momentum Models Continue to Underperform

Ben Ford, Richard Jones

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.5% WoW) added to last week’s losses, with rates (-1.2% WoW) leading.  FX momentum models (-0.1% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month […]

Momentum Models Reverse Last Week’s Gains

Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford

When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models (-0.4% WoW) reversed last week’s gains, with rates (-0.8% WoW) FX momentum models (-0.2% WoW) registered smaller losses. Rates momentum models are the best-performing models over a three-month timeframe (+3.0%). […]

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