Richard Jones
Summary This week saw a torrent of central bank rate decisions, highlighted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ending its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets by cutting rates by 25bps. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) kept policy steady with comparably less fanfare, […]
Richard Jones
Summary In the next seven days, six G10 central banks provide monetary policy updates. Excepting the Bank of Japan (BoJ), no interest rate moves are expected. Markets are therefore largely in wait-and-see mode, with most G10 currencies in a range, presenting very few attractive trades. Market Implications One exception to this is being short the […]
Bilal Hafeez, Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. A positive rates (+0.3% WoW) outing battled poor equity (-0.4% WoW) and FX (-0.1% WoW) performances. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models declined -0.3% over the past week. Poor rates (-1.0% WoW) and FX (-0.2% WoW) outweighed a positive equity (+0.7% WoW) outing. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+6.9%). Market Implications Momentum models are bearish EUR/USD and bullish GBP/USD – we have closed our long USD trades. They […]
Richard Jones
Summary US 2-year and 10-year yields have range-traded year-to-date (YTD). US yields in both curve points have retraced slightly lower this month after sharp moves higher in February. We think the US jobs report tomorrow will be the catalyst for the next directional move in the US rates market, with the next Federal Reserve (Fed) […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Powell’s congressional testimony (Wednesday) will likely stress the need for more good inflation data before the Fed can cut. Nonfarm payrolls and wages (Friday) are likely to surprise on the upside. In Europe, the ECB should keep rates steady on Thursday but revise forecasts. We still expect a June cut at […]
Ben Ford
Summary Momentum models gained +0.3% over the past week. Equities fared best (+1.6% WoW), while rates (+0.0%) and FX (-0.1% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+7.0%). Market Implications Momentum models are bullish EUR/USD – we are short – and bullish EUR/CHF – we are long. They are […]
Richard Jones
Summary Two weeks ago, EUR/USD traded down to the bottom of its YTD range of ~1.0700/1.1100, the lowest level since mid-November. Strong US data prints and hawkish Fed messaging drove the USD outperformance. Recently, however, buoyant risk sentiment and rallying equities have supported the euro, which is trading like a risk-on/risk-off currency. Downside momentum in […]
Richard Jones
Summary USD/JPY has traded above 150 in the past week or so for the first time since mid-November. This immediately prompted verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), opposing JPY weakness. Should the pair remain above 150 and push towards the 2023 high near 152, we expect additional verbal intervention. We are also very […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models moved sideways over the past week. Equities fared best (+0.3% WoW), then rates (+0.1%). FX (-0.2% WoW) underperformed. Equity momentum models remain the best-performing model over a three-month timeframe (+5.5%). […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models added to last week’s gains, up +0.4% WoW. Equities fared best (+1.2% WoW), then rates (+0.3% WoW) and FX (+0.1% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model […]
Richard Jones
Summary After rallying on haven demand late last month, the Swiss franc (CHF) has weakened in February. Weaker-than-expected Swiss inflation data drove the decline, with imported product prices sliding. This indicates the currency is weighing materially on inflation and has prompted the market to price a strong probability of an SNB rate cut next month. […]
Ben Ford
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models reversed last week’s losses, up +0.2% WoW. Equities fared best (+0.4% WoW), then rates (+0.2% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+4.8%). […]
Richard Jones
Summary Since 1 November, AUD/NZD has traded in a ~1.0650/1.0950 range. This week’s RBA meeting tacked more hawkishly than we expected. The market had already been pricing RBNZ hawkishness. Market Implications We see value in leaning against the bottom of the range outlined above and initiating a long AUD/NZD. We target the top of the […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, Friday brings seasonal factor revisions to the CPI. These could impact the path of the FFR. Currently Powell seems set on no rate cut in March. Europe and the UK hear from central bank policymakers and see several key surveys updated, including the services PMIs. Elsewhere, a slew of central bank […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models reversed last week’s gains as they declined -0.2% over the past week. Rates fared worst (-0.4% WoW), while equities followed (-0.2% WoW). Equity momentum models are the only positively performing […]
Richard Jones
Summary In the two-year maturity, the spread of UK yields over Eurozone yields has widened in recent weeks. We think hawkish BoE pricing has gone too far, as has dovish ECB pricing. A repricing could see spreads narrow and support our bullish EUR/GBP view. Market Implications We would fade any widening of the Eurozone/UK short-end […]
Bilal Hafeez, Viresh Kanabar
Summary In the US, the Fed meets on Wednesday. We expect them to hold rates steady while preparing markets for a cut in March. In the UK, the BoE will likely hold rates unchanged on Thursday, taking a more dovish profile in the near term. January CPI is the main release of the week for […]
Ben Ford, Bilal Hafeez
When evaluating the performance of our momentum models we are considering the average performance across the one-, three-, and 12-month momentum models. Summary Momentum models inched +0.2% higher over the past week as equities outshone mixed outings in rates and FX. Equity momentum models are the only positively performing model over a three-month timeframe (+4.0%). […]
At Macro Hive, we offer a wide range of FX rates analysis and research into foreign exchange markets. We provide detailed FX analysis on DM and EM on a weekly basis, while our Emerging Markets team produces daily insights into the latest currency exchange rates and FX trends for China, India, Brazil and other EM countries. Our FX rates analysis also covers carry trades.
The trading of currencies on the FX market (or forex market) occurs 24 hours a day, five days a week across major financial centers worldwide. Our research is therefore global in perspective, and we cover the latest FX news alongside analysis of historical exchange rates in response to macro trends. At Macro Hive, we base our FX rates insights on a longer-term outlook, seeking to hold positions for weeks rather than intraday swings.
As with all investments, trading in currencies entails risk, especially during periods of high market volatility or geopolitical tension. We recommend investors interested in FX investments tailor their exposure according to their risk appetite. It is also possible to hedge to mitigate exposure to risk by using correlated currency pairs.
As a corollary to our FX research, Macro Hive also specialises in interest rate insights. We offer previews and reviews of central bank meetings and analysis of central bank communications, and our research extends to the broad macroeconomic implications of easing and tightening cycles. We use this to inform not just our FX analysis, but also our outlook on bonds, equities, and other asset classes.
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